2012 Stock Market Predictions

In case you haven’t heard, the S&P 500 closed the year at 1257.60 this past Friday. That’s just a hair down from the 2010 closing price of 1257.64 — essentially even in the grand scheme of things.

Despite the flat performance overall, the past year was anything but uneventful. Don’t believe me? Check out the graph below.

S&P 500 2011 Performance

After some nice gains during the first half of the year, Congress managed to cook up a crisis which resulted in a US credit downgrade and dramatic losses stock market losses. From that point forward, the market gradually regained its footing, though it was far from a smooth recovery.

Of course, the above numbers ignore dividend reinvestment. After account for dividends, the market (as measured by the S&P 500) returned something close to 2% for the year. Not great, especially given the volatility, but better than nothing.

Through it all, I managed to do a good bit of tax loss harvesting on the equity side, and we also benefited nicely from our bond holdings (Total Bond Market [VBMFX] and TIPS [VIPSX]), which account for roughly 40% of our total portfolio.

With that as a backdrop, I though it would be fun to run a poll asking for 2012 stock market predictions…


If you’d like to make a guess as to the specific closing price at the end of 2012, please do so in the comments section (but please also select a poll choice). You won’t win anything but bragging rights if you get ir right, but hey…

Bragging is kinda fun. 😉

Note: E-mail and RSS subscribers may need to click through for the poll to work.

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